NZD: Dazed and confused – TDS

CFTC is reporting record short NZD positions, not surprising when senior RBNZ officials have been advocating rate cuts since August, according to Annette Beacher, Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TD Securities. Key Quotes “Meanwhile, activity continues to surprise to the upside: Q ...

RBNZ left the cash rate at 1.75% – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that the RBNZ left the cash rate at 1.75% as widely anticipated, and forward guidance a repeat of August, where "We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and into 2020. The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down". Key Quotes “W ...

NZ GDP: Only good news here – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities offered their review of the surprise beat in NZ GDP. Key Quotes: "Jun qtr GDP jumped by +1.0%/qtr, outpacing TD/median expectations of +0.8%/q. More importantly, the RBNZ looked for +0.5%/q. Annual growth picked up from 2.6% to 2.8%/y. The NZD jumped from $US0.6 ...

NZD: Driven by global themes of late – ANZ

Analysts at ANZ suggest that for the NZD it has been far more about global themes of late, and in particular whether or not global trade tensions are set to escalate. Key Quotes “There have been both good and bad headlines regarding that this past week, but news that tariffs on an additiona ...

AUD/NZD should recover to 1.11 by year-end – Westpac

Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, points out that the AUD/NZD rallied above 1.11 in response to the RBNZ’s dovish MPS on 9 Aug as it lowered its GDP forecasts and RBNZ’s McDermott said that the chances of a rate cut have increased. Key Quotes “Further such commentary i ...

AUD/NZD tries to recover on as-expected China PMI data

Australian Retail Sales missed the mark, but even-handed China PMI data recovers Pacific market sentiment. China Caixin Manufacturing PMI clocks in at 50.6, cautiously down from the previous 50.8. The AUD/NZD took a header after Australia's Retail Sales figures failed to matc ...

NZD: Stay short – ANZ

Analysts at ANZ continue to like being short NZD as the New Zealand’s domestic picture continues to deteriorate and ANZ think that global conditions (with liquidity tightening and global growth slowing towards trend, if not below) will act as a key headwind for cyclical currencies. Key Quote ...

We continue to like being short NZD – ANZ

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited (ANZ) explained that we continue to like being short NZD.  Key Quotes: "The domestic picture continues to deteriorate and we think that global conditions (with liquidity tightening and global growth slowing towards trend, if not below) will act a ...

Dollar firing on all cylinders – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities, in a market wrap, noted that the USD is firing on all cylinders after President Trump imposed another round of tariffs on $16bn of Chinese imports, provoking a tit-for-tat retaliation. Key Quotes: "However, the announcement had little impact on broader risk sentimen ...

Market sentiment was upbeat in North America – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities explained that the market sentiment was upbeat in North America with the S&P 500 trading near January highs on a 0.2% advance while Canadian equities closed 0.2% lower. Key Quotes: "Treasuries bear-flattened from 5s onwards on a 3bp selloff in the belly whil ...

AUD/NZD short term fair value is around 1.09 – Westpac

Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that spot AUD/NZD has gyrated either side of Westpac’s short term fair value estimate for the past year or so, recently bouncing to somewhat above fair value. Key Quotes “The spot rally to above 1.12 in Oct 2017 produced the larges ...

AUD/NZD should trend towards the 1.1250 area – Westpac

US-China trade tensions remain a potential weight on the cross but if China avoids a major growth disruption, AUD/NZD should trend towards the 1.1250 area multi-week/month, according to Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac. Key Quotes “AUD/NZD was already trending higher when it was give ...